GOVERNMENT OF INDIAGOVERNMENT OF INDIA
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Milk Production in India

August 4, 2015

Milk

Major portion of India’s economy is based on agriculture and animal husbandry wherein milk production plays vital role. India is ranked first in production of milk in the world followed by United States, China, and Germany. Production of milk of India was around 140 million tonnes in 2013-14 according to NDDB. Datasets of milk production up to year 2013-2014 are published under department of animal husbandry of Ministry of Agriculture in Data portal of India (data.gov.in).

List of available Catalogs of milk production:

  1. Estimates of yield rates, and share of cross breed, non-descript, buffalo and goats in milk production
  2. Major livestock products
  3. State/UT-wise estimates of Milk Production
  4. State/UT-wise estimates of Milk Production by animal
  5. State/UT-wise estimates Per Capita Availability of Milk
  6. Estimates of Milk Production by Exotic/Crossbred Cows
  7. Estimates of Production and Per Capita Availability of Milk

Let’s play with the dataset (https://data.gov.in/sites/default/files/datafile/Animal_Husbandry_TABLE1_2012-13.csv ) is dataset of milk production that contains information about milk production, human population and per capita availability of milk from 1950-51 to 2012-13.

Glimpse of data:

Year – (March to February) Milk Production – (million tonnes) Human Population – (million nos.) Per Capita Availability – (gram./day)
1950-51 17 359 130
1955-56 19 393 132
1960-61 20 434 126
1968-69 21.2 518 112
1973-74 23.2 580 110

 

From the dataset, it is evident that production of milk has risen drastically like the population of India. In year 1950-51, the production of milk was 17 million tonnes and population was 359 million. In year 2012-13, the production of milk was 132.4 million tonnes and population was 1212 million that showed 678.82% of growth in milk production and 237.6% of growth in population. Given link (https://data.gov.in/visualize3/?inst=693395423fa52d20ff75d11b2f235ce0&vid=6521# ) has time series plot of estimates of milk production from 1950-51 to 2012-13.it is shown as below.

 

Let’s find out how India will manage the per capita consumption of milk up to 2020. In the datasets we have discrete information from 1950-51 to 1973-74 and having continuous information form year 1979-80 to 2012-13. So, the analysis will be carried in two sets, first set that has complete year information from 1950-51 to 2012-13 and second set that has only continuous scale of year.

Convert Year format from 1950-51 to 1950 as shown in table, with this we will be able to take year as a numeric format to apply in linear model

 

Year – (March to February) year
1950-51 1950
1955-56 1955
1960-61 1960
1968-69 1968
1973-74 1973

 

Now start with first set, we use simple linear model wherein time is independent variable and milk production is dependent variable.

Let year=Year, mp=milk production and pop=human population. Now I use R software to run simple linear model over this set.

Linear model: mp(milk production)= a + b*year & pop(population)= a + b*year

Result a=-3914.960 & b=1.999

On the basis of this result; In year 2020, the production of milk will be around 123.22 million tonnes with upper limit 150.40 and lower limit 96.04 million tonnes. Similarly human population will be around 1311.967 million with upper limit 1374.938 million and lower limit 1248.995 million.

In set 2, now run the same model by using continuous year.In year 2020, we will have 144.2078 million tonnes with lower limit 133.2897 and upper limit 155.1259. Similarly human population will be around 1360.614 million with lower limit 1350.522 million and upper limit 1370.706 million.

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